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California Energy Commission Center for Energy Efficient and Renewable Technology Electric Power Research Institute U.S. Dept of Energy Independent System Operator Calpine |
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| California Needs More Power Supply INTERNET ECONOMY DRIVING HUGE GROWTH IN POWER DEMAND New power plant technology highly efficient, but faces vociferous opposition Updated March 20, 2001 Our state is gripped by a power crisis. California's population has grown so fast that we are consuming electricity at levels the California Energy Commission predicted wouldn't be reached until the year 2007. Energy consumption has increased 13 percent in the last decade, while supply increased only 2 percent. The amount of power currently produced per capita in California is the lowest in the nation. No wonder rolling blackouts struck the state again in March. And the peak power demand season is still two months away. Even though nine new power plants have been approved since 1998 and 14 more have appplications before the commission, more than half the state's energy is being produced by plants at least 40 years of age and at risk of being retired. Energy officials say 12 to 15 new power plants are needed now to assure power reliability and accommodate growth. Even if construction outpaces the rate of plant closures, the commission estimates that the state will not have enough capacity to meet the peak summer power demand until 2003. Compounding the crisis are skyrocketing wholesale prices of the natural gas used to fire power plants and the restriction of free market forces that would ultimately result in competitive pricing. The combination of these three forces have resulted in rising utility bills and the rolling blackouts the California Alliance for Jobs predicted in our radio spots last summer. Indeed, the state's metropolitan areas experienced a series of blackouts during hot spells last June and later in the summer. In the Bay Area, more than 100,000 customers suffered power interruptions. In November, energy officials warned that more blackouts would happen this winter as heating demands strain the system. They were right. Rolling blackouts struck the Bay Area again in January, leaving tens of thousands of people without power for up to two hours. High-tech manufacturers in the Silicon Valley, the engine driving the state's prosperity, stand to suffer mightily if the blackouts become regular. Companies were hard hit by last June's outages. According to the Silicon Valley Manufacturing Group, the blackouts cost high-tech companies at least $75 million a day. As it happens, the products produced by the Silicon Valley are contributing to the state's power woes. The explosion in Internet traffic is propelling not only computer sales, but an array of products associated with their manufacture and use. And these new products are driving an extraordinary demand for more electric power, a demand that may not be met because of opposition to new power plants by antigrowth advocates and residential activist groups. Starting from essentially zero in 1993, the Internet has grown to consume 8% of all the power produced in the United States, and computers as a whole are taking 13%. While individual computer chips are growing increasingly efficient, their numbers are growing so rapidly that some industry experts predict that the digital-Internet economy will require up to half the nation's electric supply in the next 10 to 20 years. There are now 200 million computers in the United States, and 80% of the world's entire Internet traffic is routed through the United States. A billion PCs on the Web means electric demand equal to total U.S. output today. California is particularly vulnerable to power shortages because it has been importing about 15% of its peak power from other states, and 61% of its oil and natural gas-fired generation is more than 30 years old. These old power plants are antiquated from both economic and environmental perspectives, causing electricity rates to be higher, our power supply to be less reliable and our air to be dirtier than it would be with more modern generation. California imported as much as 7,500 megawatts of power for last summer's peak. That amount is the equivalent of the combined output of a dozen medium-sized power plants and enough to meet the typical household needs of about 7.5 million people. But imported power will probably not be available in the future because of demand growth in the states that have been exporting power and environmental limits on hydroelectric power in the Pacific Northwest. The bottom line is that California needs new power plants. One medium-sized natural gas-fueled power plant capable of generating 600 megawatts of electricity will cost $300 to $400 million and, during peak construction, require 300 to 400 construction workers. The construction of 12 to 15 new plants would provide work for 5, 000 people. Replacing the old power plants will require a building program more than twice that size. Unfortunately, virtually every proposal to build a new power plant faces some form of opposition. At the state level, environmental groups recognize the value of increased efficiency and cleaner air, but local organizations often take an opposing view or at best remain neutral. Most opposition stems from residents who fear that their air will be poisoned and their homes will lose value. Often they acknowledge the need for power, but want the power plant in some other community. In fact, power generation has enjoyed the same advances in technology that have occurred in telecommunications, transportation and other industries since the old power plants were designed and built in the 1950s and 1960s. New combined-cycle, natural gas-fueled power plants produce 40% more electricity with the same amount of fuel and are up to 90% cleaner than the old natural gas power plants. Natural gas-fueled plants are inherently cleaner than plants fueled by oil or coal. The new technology employs gas turbines larger in size than those used on a jumbo jet aircraft, but operating on the same principle. Combined-cycle generation improves efficiency by using exhaust energy from the gas turbines to drive steam generators. The new technology also eliminates nearly all the oxides of nitrogen that can create harmful ozone. Turbine gases are funneled through modern emissions control equipment and neutralized with the use of ammonia. The ammonia combines with oxides of nitrogen to produce nitrogen, a primary natural element in our air. The result of this new efficiency is that emissions can be limited to 2.5 parts per million. By contrast, combined cycle power plants 10 years old typically were built to at least 10 parts per million, and the 30- and 40-year-old plants that used boiler technology are allowed to operate at more than 80 to 90 parts per million. New power plants cannot be built unless it is clearly demonstrated and confirmed by numerous regulatory bodies, including the local air quality management district and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, that there will be no harmful impacts to the environment or on public health. Power generators are seeking public support through aggressive public education and public relations programs, by responding forthrightly to neighborhood concerns and by enlisting the support of allies and community leaders. (Note: Illustration above is an architectural conception of one of the new generation of power plants designed to blend better with its surroundings.) |
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